Bundaberg – QLD 2020

LNP 4.2%

Incumbent MP
David Batt, since 2017.

Geography
Central Queensland. The seat of Bundaberg covers the central suburbs of the Bundaberg urban area, including Avoca, Svensson Heights, Thabeban, Kensington, Avenell Heights and Kalkie.

History
The seat of Bundaberg has existed continuously since 1888. Labor held the seat continuously from 1896 until 2006.

Clem Campbell won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He held the seat until his retirement in 1998, when he was succeeded by Nita Cunningham.

Cunningham was re-elected in 2001 and 2004. In 2006 she resigned due to health issues. A by-election was not held, as Cunningham’s resignation prompted Peter Beattie to call an early election.

Bundaberg was won in 2006 by the National Party’s Jack Dempsey. Dempsey won re-election in 2009 and 2012.

Dempsey was defeated in 2015 by Labor’s Leanne Donaldson. Donaldson herself only held on to the seat for one term, losing in 2017 to the LNP’s David Batt.

Candidates

  • Ian Zunker (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Claire Ogden (Greens)
  • Shane Smeltz (United Australia)
  • Stewart Jones (One Nation)
  • David Batt (Liberal National)
  • Tom Smith (Labor)

Assessment
Bundaberg is a marginal seat and has been won by Labor in the recent past.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Batt Liberal National 10,578 35.5 -6.9
Leanne Donaldson Labor 10,232 34.4 -4.2
Jane Truscott One Nation 6,681 22.4 +22.4
Marianne Buchanan Greens 1,050 3.5 -0.6
Alan Corbett Independent 681 2.3 +2.3
Richard Glass Independent 313 1.1 +1.1
Richard Smith Independent 248 0.8 +0.8
Informal 1,476 4.7

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Batt Liberal National 16,142 54.2 +4.7
Leanne Donaldson Labor 13,641 45.8 -4.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bundaberg have been divided into three areas: central, north and west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the west (51.5%) and the north (55.6%), while Labor won 51.2% in the centre. The LNP won 57.9% of the pre-poll vote.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 21.1% in the west to 21.9% in the centre, as well as 24% in the pre-poll vote.

Voter group ON prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
Central 21.9 48.8 5,268 17.7
West 21.1 51.5 5,044 16.9
North 21.8 55.6 3,371 11.3
Pre-poll 24.0 57.9 12,148 40.8
Other votes 20.7 52.3 3,952 13.3

Election results in Bundaberg at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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42 COMMENTS

  1. Can’t say I have my pulse on this seat as opposed to Maryborough and Hervey Bay where I contacts. Low margin and first term MP but definitely think the swing is against Labor in the regions. (Remember this seat was lost by the ALP originally because of the Dr Death scandals at the local hospital.) Not as confident with my other calls but…

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

  2. September prediction: LNP retain. I think the days of Labor winning this are gone, except when they win a landslide election from opposition.

  3. The key to the seat is the One Nation vote from last time. It won’t be 22% this time.

    Its a regional urban seat not a rural seat so you might find alot of the One Nation vote are blue collar and unemployed types who go back to Labor. You might also find a lot are elderly and like the Premier’s COVID stance.

    So how much One Nation vote swings back to the major parties is vital here.

  4. @Feel the Bern

    Labor did win this seat when it wasn’t a landslide. They won it in 2015 when Labor formed a minority government. They did lose it in 2017 though. It hasn’t been mentioned on here but what harmed Labor’s chances in this seat was it was reported in the media the Labor member for Bundaberg had almost $8000 of unpaid council rates for three years. Considering the minster salary she was on it likely developed a backlash in the community. You could argue that One Nation preferences cost her the seat but it was more this issue. And it wasn’t something you can afford to do, considering she only had a margin 0.5%.

    It was the only seat that the LNP gained in the regions. And Bruce Saunders who had the neighboring seat of Maryborough had no problems holding his seat. Despite having the same challenges.

    LNP probably retains this seat. But I disagree with the analysis that Labor only can win this seat in a landslide.

  5. @Political Nightwatchman, respect your analysis but I actually consider 2015 a landslide sort of, by that, it was an awful night for the LNP with double digit swings back to Labor in many seats. Yes, the previous member for Bundy did herself no favours but I just can’t see Labor picking up any regional seat that they don’t hold.

  6. I believe this seat has a rare distinction of fully being surrounded by 1 seat (Burnett) that doesn’t border the coastline or another state or territory (Seats that border the ocean don’t count) Any future redistribution that pushes the seat more to the coastline is bound to benefit the LNP. Probably one to watch in 2024 if the LNP somehow win government (Or whenever there is an INC LNP government) But not this election. If Labor had held on here last time this probably would have been an LNP gain regardless considering Labor’s ”Rural” problem

  7. Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [no change]

    The lack of candidates for this electorate speaks volumes for itself, that most expect LNP to retain and divert resources to other contests.

  8. Clive Plamer’s candidate Shane Smeltz is former A League and New Zealand National Team Footballer. Smeltz also once played for Gold Coast United which was owned by Plamer. The Club didn’t last long and was folded two years after entering the League

  9. Labor still think they are a chance in Bundaberg according to the ABC, but it still has to be acknowledge the LNP are favorites. But Sportsbet has Labor still competitive with the LNP $1.50 and Labor $2.50. Bundaberg hasn’t been mention much through the media. But I thought it was interesting that Labor were competitive in the betting odds on Sportsbet.

    ‘Further north, Labor’s chances of picking up seats diminish, although the party is also talking up its chances in Bundaberg.’

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-17/qld-state-election-2020-lack-brisbane-lnp-campaigning/12774236

  10. Anybody in the region have much insight into the ground game here? I’ve noticed a couple betting outlets showing Labor running close in Bundaberg and I’m thinking it could be a kind of surprise pickup come Election Day (depending on how things are for Labor throughout the night) similar to 2015. LNP is for sure favored as of now but if Labor is going to gain traction rather than slip in any of the regional LNP seats it’ll be here IMO.

  11. Lilith .. Labor obviously think they’re a chance .. Premier has been there a few times and there are a few big ticket items eg. new Hospital, major flood mitigation project and cheap irrigation prices for farmers. Candidate seems capable decent too.

  12. Final prediction: LNP retain, despite a 10/10 case of optimism being put to me by a couple of people behind the scenes that Labor are a sniff here, I just don’t see it.

  15. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Labor gain. I think the One Nation vote falls from 23% to about 10% here, with the bulk of it going to Labor as these voters are very blue collar and age pensioner. They naturally lean Labor and COVID factors play here in Labor’s favour.

    Side note, I’m told after the two main parties the only other candidate with a ground campaign is the Legalise Cannabis candidate. His vote might be rather decent by micro party standards and maybe even steal some Greens vote (his signs look like a Greens candidate apparently)

  16. If ALP win, or even come close here, it’s going to be a very robust statewide victory indeed. A Covid-led victory. Not saying it’s impossible, but if it happens it means the whole narrative about this being a close fought election is wrong. This area has been trending towards the LNP and they have a new members personal vote, which should be significant in a one seat city.

  18. QO Maverick
    CRRRRRRAAAACCCCCCK !!!!!!!! = Paradise Dam.!!!.
    just saying that is something pretty big to get past.

  19. Bundaberg is a regional major town seat, the Paradise issue is not as a big deal as the LNP believe. If it seat consisted of smaller towns and farms sure it is an issue.

  20. QO
    It is the symbolism. By not spending the money to restore the Dam, the govt is sending a message to this community. = “we don’t give a F… Toss about you lot”!
    . Regional QLD receives this communication often, & takes it ….badly!!

  21. Winey .. The big messages sent to the Bundaberg electorate put the dam in the shade. A totally new hospital and a $42 million Flood Levee to protect the East side as well as a lot of smaller commitments. Labor are 100% with the people of Bundaberg, as they are in Maryborough.

  22. PK
    Another superb piece of pork-barreling. Sensational !!!. Like with Maryborough should i change my call to Labor Hold ?.
    There is that thing though….. If this really was important why isn’t it already underway ?. All these & other questions…..!?. i do wonder when the (spending) party will end ?

    So QO, & Maverick might be safe after all ?. ALL IN ALL just hilarious
    cheers WD

  23. Look I am LNP voter, but I can tell you in a town that flooded extensively in 2011 and 2013, the lets make Paradise Dam safe line plus the Labor promise of the levee protecting people’s homes will play well.

  24. Unexpectedly bad result for Labor last time here so might be worth a bet if odds were OK but would still be quite surprised if Labor won.

  25. QO
    Fair enough. sound reasoning, & position. Instinctively it doesn’t feel like 5% though, at least not to me

  26. Bundaberg used to be like Rockhampton or Mackay ….. but this has changed and most times the default result is lnp held. That said a popular sitting mp can retain……… Also there was a bit of an own goal by the prev mp……….

  27. Read all the above
    The paradise dam is a massive issue.
    The local LNP member is a well known and regarded local.
    The ALP has parachuted in a no-one from outside the seat.
    LNP hold.
    And, wait, before you squawk you keyboard warriors: no-one really knows so stop being experts! And… I was ALP member for 20 year

  29. Bearded … Isn’t Smith a local teacher?? Anyway, whatever the case, he’s gone awfully close to rolling Batt.

  30. Queensland Observer: that Legalise Cannabis guy was coming third with 9% at one stage (he got the donkey vote, which helped). There’s a few seats in central Qld where they’ve come in ahead of the Greens (Mackay, Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Maryborough, probably more). Above 5% is good for a single-issue party.

  31. Hi BOP,

    As I wrote a few days ago in herr.

    “Side note, I’m told after the two main parties the only other candidate with a ground campaign is the Legalise Cannabis candidate. His vote might be rather decent by micro party standards and maybe even steal some Greens vote (his signs look like a Greens candidate apparently)”

  33. The way the minor parties are preferencing is interesting. The legalise cannabis are splitting 50/50. This is not really a surprise to me since over the last 30 years or so the cannabis use people have moved more conservative. In part it is due to the boomers aging but I think that the benefits of cannabis in pain relief for the terminally ill has swung many and there is also an overlap with the one nation crowd.

    Cannabis when I was young was trendy middle class kids having a bit of a rebellion, but now it is mainstream and especially the case for those with less money.

    The Green preferences go a little more strongly to the LNP that you might expect but I have noticed for some time in these Qld regional seats that Green preferences go all over the place. i suspect it is partly due to community and family connections where a Greens voter as the may have Uncle Joe or their neighbour as the LNP or PHON candidate or indeed traditional LNP voters may find that their granddaughter’s best friend/favourite teacher is the Greens candidate. This is much less likely in the cities.

  35. I mentioned on the Mirani post I thought the LNP would fall short here. I was basing that off the first batch of 2800 postals. The second batch of 1400 postals broke more strongly the LNP’S way. It will be line ball and I expect a full recount to occur.

  38. I’m not sure whether it was a recount per se, but in Ripon in 2018 an initially reported 31 vote Labor win later became a 15 vote Liberal win.

  39. That must have been an extremely lazy Liberal campaign to apparently miss a 46 vote swing all through the official count. Perhaps they didn’t send in any scrutineers at all?

    I’m honestly surprised there could possibly that many ballots in the wrong pile, or onerously declared formal/informal, the electoral commission employees aren’t blind.

  41. I think if the new Labor member for Bundaberg works this seat he can hold this. Its recent history is not fair reflection of how strong Labor the seat is. LABOR lost the seat in 2006 because of the Dr Death scandel, and 2017 because of backlash of the member didn’t pay her rates.

  42. Having a quick look at figures on an I phone screen indicates that there is significanct variance between informal and formal ballot counts. The
    ALP picked up 6 Primary votes
    LNP 9 more Primary
    Formal votes an extra 10 votes and total Formal votes an extra 41.
    I really need a computer to do analysis. Formal distribution of preferences does appear not to have been done in a perfect manner. I will have a closer look tomorrow.

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